People have been surprised at the strong showing in the local council elections for Ukip, well ahead of what the opinion polls suggested. Some wonder if, when the result of the European elections is announced on Monday, the party will do much better than expected.
There is one factor here, I suggest, which may have been overlooked. The Tories tend to do better in the polling booth than earlier opinion polls would suggest because some people, convinced Tory voters, are embarrassed or ashamed to admit their intentions to pollsters beforehand. The nasty party, and all that. This is an accepted statistical blip.
How much more true is this likely to be for Ukip, the party that in smart metropolitan circles dare not speak its name? We shall see.
Tom Paines Bones 